Obama 96.3% Chance of Winning!
As I was reading through a recent issue of Sports Illustrated lately I came across an article about a site called FiveThirtyEight.com. It’s page 22 of the October 13, 2008 issue if you want to pull up the article for yourself. Nate Silver, the site’s creator, is a managing partner of Baseball Prospectus who invented PECOTA. Yes that’s right Nate is applying sabermetrics to political polling! I have to say it’s a freaking great idea!
By analyzing data while also comparing the data to historical trends and players of comparable talent and age PECOTA is better able to predict a players future returns based on a little more than just a guess and last year’s numbers. FiveThirtyEight, which is the number of votes in the electoral college if you didn’t pick up on that, combines similar polling data weighing it for historical accuracies and timeliness to more accurately make an educated guess about upcoming election.
So is it exactly right? Well maybe or maybe not, but as of this morning the site is giving Obama the above mentioned 96.3% chance of winning the election. I for one have really gotten interested in voting this time around. I’ll be the first to admit I’m twenty-seven years old and have never voted for a president before and fall in that demographic of individuals excited about casting my vote this election.
Me being the analytical junkie that I am I want more than just cherry picked poll data and this site is the answer!
Also just for the record. I’ve voting for Obama. Which is probably why this site is exiting and even worth mentioning this. But hey… it’s my blog and I can write what I want too.